Government debt management

By agreement with the Ministry of Finance and Economic Affairs, the Central Bank of Iceland undertakes tasks relating to management of the Treasury’s domestic and foreign debt, as well as Treasury guarantees and relending. The agreement on Government debt management and other contractual agreements can be found here: Agreements and collaborators

Information on the tasks undertaken by Government Debt Management can be found on the Government Debt Management website: Government Debt Management

 

The Republic of Iceland's sovereign credit ratings

Three rating agencies issue credit ratings for the Republic of Iceland: Moody’s Investors Service, Fitch Ratings and Standard & Poor’s. By agreement with the Ministry of Finance and Economic Affairs, the Central Bank of Iceland undertakes tasks relating to management of the Treasury’s domestic and foreign debt, as well as Treasury guarantees and relending. Whereas the Bank previously handled regular contacts with the credit rating agencies on behalf of the Government, the Ministry of Finance and Economic Affairs now handles such contacts. 

The Central Bank stopped posting information on Iceland’s sovereign credit ratings at the end of 2021. Information on Iceland’s sovereign credit ratings can be found on the Government of Iceland website: The Republic of Iceland's sovereign credit ratings

 

The role of sovereign credit ratings

Sovereign credit ratings play an important role in the global financial markets. Ratings agencies assign borrowers a credit rating that significantly influences the lending terms offered to them.   The credit ratings reflect the assessment of borrowers’ ability to honour their commitments in full and on time. It gives an indication of the probability that a borrower will default on payments. Iceland´s sovereign rating sets the benchmark for the creditworthiness of other Icelandic borrowers in global credit markets and is therefore highly important to them.

 

Assignment of credit ratings

Sovereign credit ratings are assigned based on various criteria, including the following: 

  • The sovereign’s ability to service foreign-denominated debt
  • The country’s GDP growth potential
  • Monetary policy
  • Political risk
  • Government finances and government guarantees
  • Structure of the economy and revenues
  • Debt position of State-owned corporations
  • Public sector debt position
  • Private sector debt position

These factors are all evaluated before the credit rating is assigned. In the financial markets, ratings from credit rating agencies are placed in two main categories: investment-grade and speculative-grade. The rating agencies assign comparable alphabetical scores, as can be seen in Table 1.  The alphabetic rating is generally accompanied by an outlook statement indicating the prospects for changes in the credit rating. The outlook can be negative, stable, or positive. Credit ratings agencies publish news and detailed grounds for their assessments on a regular basis.

Moody‘s
S&P og Fitch
Explanation of rating
Investment grade ratings
Aaa
AAA
Highest grade, lowest risk
Aa
AA
High grade, low risk
A
A
Above average grade, relatively low risk
Baa
BBB
Average grade, medium risk
Speculative grade ratings
Ba
BB
Payment likely, but uncertain
B
B
Currently able to pay, risk of future default
Caa
CCC
Poor liquidity and clear risk of default
Ca
CC
Very doubtful liquidity; frequent default
C
C
Lowest grade; extremely poor outlook for repayment
  D
In default

Experts from the ratings agencies visit Iceland annually and meet with representatives from the Government, the Central Bank and the private sector. Following those meetings, the sovereign credit rating is affirmed or amended, depending on the assessment of the respective credit rating agency.

 

Developments in Iceland’s sovereign credit ratings

Standard & Poor‘s
Foreign Currency
Domestic Currency

Affirmed(date)
Long-term
Short-term
Long-term
Short-term
Outlook
'89
Ai
A-1


Stable
'94
(new)
A-1


Stable
'96
A+
A-1+
AA+ (new)

Stable
Sept. '98
A+
A-1+
AA+

Positive
March '01
A+
A-1+
AA+

Stable
Oct.  '01
A+
A-1+
AA+

Negative
Nov. '02
A+
A-1+
AA+
A-1+ (new)
Stable
Dec. '03
A+
A-1+
AA+
A-1+
Positive
Feb. '05
AA-
A-1+
AA+
A-1+
Stable
June '06
AA-
A-1+
AA+
A-1+
Negative
Dec. '06
A+
A-1
AA
A-1+
Stable
Nov. '07
A+
A-1
AA
A-1+
Negative
Apr. '08
A+
A-1
AA
A-1+
CreditWatch
Apr. '08
A
A-1
AA-
A-1+
Negative
Sept. '08
A-
A-2
A+
A-1
CreditWatch
Oct. '08
BBB
A-3
BBB+
A-2
Negative
Nov. '08
BBB-
A-3
BBB+
A-2
Negative
Dec. '09
BBB-
A-3
BBB+
A-2
Stable
Jan. '10
BBB-
A-3
BBB+
A-2
CreditWatch
March '10
BBB-
A-3
BBB
A-3
Negative
May '11
BBB-A-3BBB-
A-3 
Negative
Nov. '11
BBB-A-3BBB-A-3Stable
Oct. '12 BBB-  A-3 BBB-  A-3 Stable
Jul. '13BBB- A-3 BBB- A-3 Negative 
Jan. '14 BBB- A-3 BBB- A-3 Stable 
Jul. '14BBB-A-3BBB-A-3Positive
Jul. '15 BBB A-2BBBA-2Stable
Jan.'16BBB+A-2BBB+     A-2Stable 
Jan '17A-
A-2 A- A-2 Stable 
March '17
A
A-1
A
A-1
Stable
Moody‘s
Foreign Currency
Domestic Currency

Affirmed (date)
Long-term
Short-term
Long-term
Short-term
Outlook
May '89
A2




Oct. '90
A2
P-1 (new)



June '96
A1
P-1



March '97
A1
P-1


Positive
July '97
Aa3
P-1
Aaa (ný)
P-1 (ný)
Stable
Oct. '02
Aaa
P-1
Aaa
P-1
Stable
March '08
Aaa
P-1
Aaa
P-1
Negative
May '08
Aa1
P-1
Aa1
P-1
Stable
Sept. '08
Aa1
P-1
Aa1
P-1
Under Review
Oct. '08
A1
P-1
A1
P-1
Under Review
Dec. '08
Baa1
P-2
Baa1
P-2
Negative
Nov. '09
Baa3
P-3
Baa3
P-3
Stable
Apr. '10
Baa3
P-3
Baa3
P-3
Negative
Apr. '10
Baa3
P-3
Baa3
P-3
Stable
July '10
Baa3
P-3
Baa3
P-3
Negative
April. '11  Baa3  P-3  Baa3  P-3  Negative 
Nov. '12  Baa3  P-3  Baa3  P-3  Negative 
Feb. '13 Baa3 P-3  Baa3  P-3 Stable
Jun. '15  Baa2    
P-2    
Baa2    
P-2    
Stable    
Sept. '16 A-3 ... A-3 ... Stable
Jul. '18  A-3    ...     A-3  ...  Positive    
Nov. '19 A-2 ...  A-2 ...  Stable
Fitch
Foreign Currency
Domestic Currency

Affirmed (date)
Long-term
Short-term
Long-term
Short-term
Outlook
Feb. '00
AA-
F1+
AAA


Sept. '00
AA-
F1+
AAA

Stable
Feb. '02
AA-
F1+
AAA

Negative
March '03
AA-
F1+
AAA

Stable
Feb. '06
AA-
F1+
AAA

Negative
March '07
A+
F1
AA+

Stable
Apr. '08
A+
F1
AA+

Negative
Sept. '08
A-
F2
AA

Ratings Watch
Oct. '08
BBB-
F3
A-

Ratings Watch
Dec. '09
BBB-
F3
A-

Negative
Jan. '10
BB+
B
BBB+

Negative
May '11 BB+ B BBB+ Stable
Feb. '12 BBB- F3
BBB+ Stable
Feb. '13 BBB F3 BBB+ ... Stable
Jan. '15  BBB  F3     BBB+  ...  Positive
Jul. '15  BBB+    
F2    
A-    
... Stable 
Jul. '16  BBB+ F2  BBB+  F2  Stable
Jan. '17  BBB+  F2     BBB+  F2  Positive 
Jul. '17  A- F2 A-  F1  Positive
Dec. '17  A  F1  F1  Stable
May. '19 A F1+ A F1+ Stable
May. '20 A
F1+ A
F1+  Negative