Mál­stofa: It's complica­ted: The impact of wa­ges on in­flati­on - 20. októ­ber 2026

Þórarinn G. Pétursson varabankastjóri peningastefnu kynnir nýja rannsókn á samhengi þróunar launa og verðlags á Íslandi og ber tiltilinn "It's complicated: The impact of wages on inflation". Rannsóknarritgerðin mun birtast á næstunni sem Working paper á heimasíðu Seðlabankans. Ágrip á ensku: How strongly do labour cost increases feed through to consumer price inflation, and does the relationship change over time? Using Icelandic data since the early 1990s, we analyse the pass-through of labour costs using a reduced-form Phillips curve and alternative local projection specifications. We find significant pass-through over the full sample, but substantial time variation in its magnitude and persistence. Pass-through was relatively weak in the years leading up to the global pandemic but has increased considerably in recent years, reflecting both a stronger direct effect and greater propagation of labour cost increases. The effects are also state-dependent, with pass-through larger when inflation is high, wage increases are large, and the economy is in a cyclical upswing. The increase in pass-through is closely associated with rising inflation expectations and evidence that expectations have become more responsive to labour cost developments. The results therefore suggest that the inflationary effects of labour costs depend importantly on the level of inflation and how sensitive inflation expectations are to shocks.