Þórarinn G. Pétursson varaseðlabankastjóri peningastefnu mun kynna nýja rannsókn á verðbólgu á Íslandi sem hann hefur unnið ásamt Bjarna G. Einarssyni. Kynningin verður fimmtudaginn 26. mars klukkan 15:00 í Seðlabanka Ísland. Rannsóknin verður birt sem rannsóknarritgerð (Working paper) með titilinn What is the trend? The evolution and drivers of Icelandic trend inflation. Hér fylgir ágrip ritgerðarinnar á ensku:
We use Bayesian methods to estimate a model of trend inflation in Iceland, allowing for stochastic volatility in both the trend and cyclical components of inflation and a time-varying persistence of deviation of inflation from its trend. Our results show that although trend inflation has fallen and become more stable since the mid-1980s, most of the improvements in overall inflation performance in Iceland reflects a decline in the volatility and persistence of the cyclical component of inflation. At the same time, our results suggest that the share of overall inflation dynamics accounted for by the trend component has significantly risen in recent years. We also find that the trend continues to be more volatile than in other advanced economies, largely reflecting less firmly anchored inflation expectations and, more recently, the interaction of weakly anchored inflation expectations and large global supply shocks.
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